Business

Five uncertainties for the world’s fastest-growing major economy

March 11, 2021
newstribe

There’s plenty of good news on projected demand for jobs. But net impact on account of three factors is crucial. One, re-employment chances of those who lost jobs in 2020 — and are losing even now in 2021.

Synopsis

Let’s acknowledge that even with strong double-digit growth in FY22, India’s GDP as FY23 begins will be just about bigger than the FY20 GDP. That means even if everything goes right in FY22, we will merely get back to where we were before the pandemic.

Some of the best news on a slowing economy that got savagely hit by Covid has come in February-March. Starting with what was Nirmala Sitharaman’s best budget, and the latest being aflurry of FY22 GDP projections: from RBI’s 10.5% to Crisil’s 11% to IMF’s 11.5% to OECD’s 12.6% and Moody’s 13.7%.

Interestingly, GoI’s own implied FY22 GDP projection is slower than IMF’s, OECD’s and Moody’s. That’s because the budget’s numbers were based on 15.4%

BY

ET Bureau

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